VENEZUELA ON ALERT OVER MADURO’S INAUGURATION
The presidential inauguration in Venezuela, scheduled for January 10, is marked by significant division within the international community over who should be recognized as the country’s legitimate leader: Nicolás Maduro, who has governed since 2013, or Enrique Urrutia, an opposition figure who has declared himself president following recent elections.
Political Context
The political crisis in Venezuela is not a recent phenomenon. Since 2018, the country has experienced heightened tensions due to allegations of electoral fraud, a collapsed economy, and international sanctions. Within this context, the latest elections have been controversial, with accusations of irregularities and voter turnout questioned by international organizations.
In this scenario, Nicolás Maduro claims to have won the elections and is preparing to assume a new term. On the other hand, Enrique Urrutia, supported by a sector of the opposition, has also declared himself president, asserting that his movement represents the popular will.
International Recognition
The international community’s reaction has been uneven, with countries splitting into two camps:
Countries recognizing Nicolás Maduro:
– Russia: A historic ally of Venezuela, with significant economic and military interests in the country.
– China: Maintains strong commercial ties with Maduro’s government, particularly in the energy sector.
– Cuba, Iran, and Turkey: These countries have reaffirmed their support for Maduro’s government, emphasizing the principle of national sovereignty.
– Bolivia and Nicaragua: Ideologically aligned governments have also recognized Maduro’s victory.
Countries recognizing Enrique Urrutia:
– United States: Has led support for the Venezuelan opposition, imposing sanctions on Maduro’s regime.
– European Union: Although not all member states have taken a unified stance, a significant group of countries, led by Spain, France, and Germany, has expressed support for Urrutia.
– Canada: Has aligned with the United States’ position in the region.
– Colombia and Brazil: Recent administrations in these countries have backed Urrutia as part of their policy to pressure Maduro’s regime.
The case of Mercosur and other Latin American countries:
– Argentina: The Argentine government has openly recognized Enrique Urrutia and received him at the Government House, reaffirming its support for the Venezuelan opposition as representing the popular will.
– Uruguay: President Luis Lacalle Pou has also recognized Enrique Urrutia and welcomed him in Montevideo, showing his support for the Venezuelan opposition. Meanwhile, Yamandú Orsi, Uruguay’s president-elect, has advocated for an intermediate position, promoting dialogue and facilitating diplomatic efforts to achieve understanding between the parties.
– Other Mercosur members: Paraguay and Chile have recognized Enrique Urrutia, while Bolivia, despite not being a full member, continues to support Maduro.
Social Climate
The social climate in Venezuela is highly unstable. Numerous demonstrations have been reported in the country’s major cities, alongside an increase in clashes between opposition groups and security forces. Additionally, Nicolás Maduro’s government has begun distributing weapons to civilians as part of a plan to defend his mandate, raising concerns about a potential escalation in violence.
Impact on Venezuela and the Region
This lack of international consensus exacerbates Venezuela’s already dire internal situation. Meanwhile, citizens face a humanitarian crisis characterized by food shortages and mass migration. Furthermore, political polarization could lead to greater instability and impact international relations across the region.
Author: Ramiro de iturralde